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Important dates:

• (purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day

• (blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate

Note: due to lag time between exposure and final positive test, effects of changes are typically observed about two weeks after event.

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Active

Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.

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Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan)

• 2wk: Two-week average case per 10K
• daily7: Daily running average (7day)

Since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s, I will also be estimating:

• 2wk20s: Two-week average cases per 10K twenties (uses age distribution from EC health)

Case fatality rate, etc:

Need to add to table - Statistics computed directly from the raw data (sourced from WI DHS), stated without interpretation nor fuzziness.

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Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

DRAFT GUIDELINES based off of reference

• If 2wk > 25 OR 2wk20s > 30, urge extreme caution.
• If 2wk > 28 (OR 2wk20s > 40), consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH.
• If 2wk > 28 (OR 2wd20s > 40) AND daily7 increasing, strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. Dr. Kraker will communicate with administration.
• If 2wk > 30 (OR 2wd20s > 50) AND daily7 steady to increasing, based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable.

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