Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Note: due to lag time between exposure and final positive test, effects of changes are typically observed about two weeks after event.
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan)
Since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s, I will also be estimating:
Case fatality rate, etc:
Need to add to table - Statistics computed directly from the raw data (sourced from WI DHS), stated without interpretation nor fuzziness.
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NA | 679 | NA | NA | 85 | 142 |
| NA | NA | NA | NA | 83 | 132 |
| NA | NA | NA | NA | 77 | 110 |
| NA | NA | NA | NA | 61 | 99 |
| NA | NA | NA | NA | 44 | 85 |
| NA | NA | NA | NA | 28 | 83 |
| NA | NA | NA | NA | 19 | 77 |
| NA | NA | NA | NA | 15 | 61 |
| NA | NA | NA | NA | 5 | 44 |
| NA | NA | NA | NA | 0 | 28 |
| NA | NA | NA | NA | 0 | 19 |
| NA | NA | NA | NA | 0 | 15 |
| NA | NA | NA | NA | 0 | 5 |
| NA | NA | NA | NA | 0 | 0 |
| NA | NA | NA | NA | 0 | 0 |
| NA | NA | NA | NA | 0 | 0 |
| NA | NA | NA | NA | 0 | 0 |
| NA | NA | NA | NA | 0 | 0 |
| NA | NA | NA | NA | 0 | 0 |
| NA | NA | NA | NA | 0 | 0 |
| NA | NA | NA | NA | 0 | 0 |
| NA | NA | NA | NA | 0 | 0 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 09 2020 | 230 | 10416 | 0 | 27 | 38 |
| August 10 2020 | 239 | 10475 | 0 | 31 | 45 |
| August 11 2020 | 241 | 10505 | 0 | 32 | 43 |
| August 12 2020 | 244 | 10621 | 0 | 35 | 46 |
| August 13 2020 | 252 | 10687 | 0 | 42 | 49 |
| August 14 2020 | 259 | 10776 | 0 | 47 | 51 |
| August 15 2020 | 266 | 10888 | 0 | 53 | 57 |
| August 16 2020 | 274 | 10968 | 0 | 56 | 65 |
| August 17 2020 | 279 | 11094 | 0 | 56 | 69 |
| August 18 2020 | 281 | 11157 | 0 | 54 | 69 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 09 2020 | 293 | 6110 | 3 | 86 | 177 |
| August 10 2020 | 295 | 6122 | 3 | 67 | 170 |
| August 11 2020 | 296 | 6159 | 3 | 43 | 163 |
| August 12 2020 | 308 | 6207 | 3 | 53 | 163 |
| August 13 2020 | 315 | 6366 | 3 | 56 | 108 |
| August 14 2020 | 320 | 6584 | 3 | 56 | 92 |
| August 15 2020 | 323 | 6622 | 3 | 50 | 70 |
| August 16 2020 | 326 | 6624 | 3 | 50 | 71 |
| August 17 2020 | 328 | 6625 | 3 | 46 | 69 |
| August 18 2020 | 336 | 6703 | 3 | 45 | 72 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 09 2020 | 60554 | 993742 | 998 | 8446 | 11727 |
| August 10 2020 | 61061 | 1001402 | 998 | 8121 | 11644 |
| August 11 2020 | 61785 | 1014277 | 1006 | 7783 | 11606 |
| August 12 2020 | 62263 | 1023723 | 1011 | 7339 | 11214 |
| August 13 2020 | 63206 | 1035195 | 1018 | 7878 | 11098 |
| August 14 2020 | 64227 | 1044613 | 1025 | 8171 | 11287 |
| August 15 2020 | 65056 | 1055119 | 1038 | 8116 | 11054 |
| August 16 2020 | 65741 | 1060533 | 1039 | 7962 | 10817 |
| August 17 2020 | 66196 | 1066040 | 1039 | 7428 | 10868 |
| August 18 2020 | 66830 | 1075397 | 1052 | 6897 | 10774 |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
DRAFT GUIDELINES based off of reference
Important Resources:
https://topic.newsbreak.com/covid-19.html?zip=19934&s=dmg_local_briefing.web2
Re-opening Trends: that is, why didn't the first wave end?
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 28 days, are approximately 23.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.36 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-09-17 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1231"